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发表于 2013-12-4 22:43:24 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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http://www.ecologica.cn/
主编: 王如松


    主管: 中国科学技术协会
    主办: 中国生态学学会
    中国科学院生态环境研究中心

    编辑: 《生态学报》编辑部
    出版: 科学出版社
    ISSN: 1000-0933
    CN:
    11-2031/Q
地址:北京海淀区双清路18号 邮编:100085 电话:010-62941099 E-mail :shengtaixuebao@rcees.ac.cn
ynzq20131204-702.png
Editor–in-chief: Zongwei Feng
Issues per year: 6
Sponsored by:
Ecological Society of China
Published by Elsevier B.V.
ISSN: 1872-2032
  
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-12-4 22:51:43 | 显示全部楼层
李国栋,张俊华,焦耿军,赵自胜.气候变化对传染病爆发流行的影响研究进展.生态学报,2013,33(21):6762~6773

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气候变化对传染病爆发流行的影响研究进展
Advances in impacts of climate change on infectious diseases outbreak
投稿时间: 2013-06-05  最后修改时间: 2013-10-30
DOI: 10.5846/stxb201306051364
中文关键词:  气候变化  传染病疫情  关系  研究进展
English Keywords:climate change  infectious disease  relationship  review
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101088);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点资助项目(12A170002);河南大学自然科学基金资助项目(2011YBZR034)
作者单位E-mail  oklgd@163.com
李国栋 河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封 475004
张俊华 河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封 475004
焦耿军 兰州军区兰州总医院安宁分院, 兰州 730070
赵自胜 河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封 475004
摘要点击次数: 41
全文下载次数: 33
中文摘要:
      全球气候变化已影响到传染病发生、传播与变化的各个环节,从病原体及其携带者、传播途径和人体自身抵抗力等方面直接或间接影响传染病的发病趋势,从而对人类健康造成了巨大的威胁。所以加强对气候变化与传染病间关系、预测预报研究,对进一步认识、预防和控制传染病的爆发流行具有重要意义。阐述了全球气候变化对生物物种的地理分布和人类健康的影响,气候变化改变了生物物种的地理分布范围,增加了某些物种的潜在分布区域,并造成生物物侯期的改变;同时,极端气候事件成为导致种群数量波动的一个重要驱动力。气候变化对人类健康有直接和间接影响,它使得传染病发病率增加、传染病分布范围扩大、人群对疾病易感性增强。评述了气候变化对疟疾、登革热、霍乱、流行性乙型脑炎、流感、SARS、肠道传染病、鼠疫、血吸虫病等常见传染病流行机制和传播过程的影响研究进展。评述了传染病和气象因子关系分析中常用的定性和定量分析方法,传统的研究多以定性分析为主,方法较单一;目前,利用流行病学资料与同期的气象因子进行单因素相关分析、多元回归分析是常用的研究方法;主成分回归分析、逐步判别分析、灰色关联分析法、RS和GIS等方法近年来逐渐得到应用;数学建模、实验室生物学仿真实验方法是今后需强化的方向。提出了该研究领域国内外研究普遍存在和亟待解决的问题,针对目前的研究现状和存在的问题,提出了未来的研究重点和发展方向。
English Summary:
      Global climate change had a significant impact on the structure and function of natural ecosystems, socio-economic and human health. At present, climate change has affected infectious disease occur, spread and change, which directly or indirectly affect the incidence trend of infectious diseases from pathogens and their carriers, routes of transmission, and the human body's own resistance. Therefore the climate change can further threat to human health. It is important to understand and detect the relationship between climate change and infectious diseases for preventing and controlling the prevalence of infectious diseases, and the impact of climate change on infectious diseases has been concerned in many scientific communities. The domestic and foreign scholars have made a meaningful exploration and got a lot of valuable results about the spread of infectious diseases caused by the global climate change. In this paper, content about the global climate change has important effects on the geographic distribution of organisms and human health was firstly overviewed. Global climate change altered the scope of the organisms distribution, which increasing the potential distribution area for some certain species and further causing the biological changes of these species in their phenophases. The species which are benefit from the climate change, however, their distribution range will be expanded with the growth of population. And the extreme weather events are an important driving force leading to population fluctuations. Lots of studies have proved that the climate change has a direct and indirect impact on human health, which can increase the incidence of infectious diseases, can expand the distribution range of infectious diseases, and finally can increase the human population susceptibility to diseases. The paper was mainly focused on the analyses about the prevalence mechanisms and propagation processes from some common infectious diseases including malaria, dengue fever, cholera, meningitis, influenza as SARS, intestinal infectious diseases, plague, and schistosomiasis. The qualitative and quantitative analysis methods about the relationships between climate change and infectious diseases were reviewed. Traditional researches were mostly qualitative analyses, the method was relatively simple and lack of sufficient evidence. Currently, the univariate correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis have got the most commonly used combined with the epidemiological data and the same period of meteorological factors. Moreover, the analyses of principal component regression and stepwise discriminance are applied in recent years. The mathematical modeling and laboratory biology simulation methods are acknowledged as the future methods in this kind of study. There are also some key scientific issues need to be resolved. For example, problems about the data limitations, how to determine the impact factors of human exposure values to climate change, the climate change and the simplification of infectious etiology chain. Finally, the future research and development direction were also discussed based on the current researches and existing problems.
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